Scotland’s farmers are facing greater uncertainty over their profit margins and will also have to battle previously unknown pests and plant diseases as a result of climate change.

Scientists at SCRI in Invergowrie, Scotland’s leading centre for research on crops, have been assessing the latest climate data and say it indicates that change is already well underway north of the border.

On the day the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issues its latest report on the impact of global warming, the Scottish scientists say farmers will have to adapt the way they operate.

The Director of SCRI, Professor Peter Gregory, said: “The changes in climate already observed in Scotland are very much in line with global trends. Our own weather data collected at Invergowrie indicates temperatures rising by about 1^°C over the last 40 years.”

“Changes to temperature, rainfall and the length of growing seasons are projected to continue and gather pace. Summers will be warmer and drier and winters warmer and wetter…with less snow and frost.”

Professor Gregory continued: “More extreme and variable weather, and changes in winter rain and snow fall, will mean big changes for the farming industry too. Growers are going to have to use more resilient and adaptable crop genotypes with plenty of disease resistance.”

“Farmers will also have to think about coping with floods in winter and at the same time come up with methods of surviving periods of drought in the summer months.”

Another senior scientist at SCRI, Dr Adrian C. Newton, said some spin-offs from climate change could be beneficial for farmers. “Warmer average temperatures mean that there is a potential for longer growing seasons for both winter and spring sown crops.”

But Dr Newton said that potential benefit could come with a catch. “Longer growing seasons are dependent on reasonable weather conditions in the spring when you are planting,” said Dr Newton.

“And a longer growing season won’t be much use if we are hit by a drought during the summer months. Plants that are susceptible to disease could also be difficult to keep in a healthy condition if more extreme weather disrupts the spraying timetable.”

SCRI has a strong track record in responding to climate and environmental change, particularly in the development of appropriate management practices. Scientists at Invergowrie have also used genetic resources to combat new pest and disease problems and stresses caused by physical and chemical factors.

Specific areas of research include:

• analysis of long-term climate records, including data collected at SCRI’s own weather station.
• development of solutions to diseases such as root-rot in soft fruit, late blight in potatoes and poor frost tolerance.
• the development of new crops.
• understanding the interactions of crops with the environment and particularly the diversity of arable land.
• studying the processes driving carbon and nitrogen cycles in the countryside.
• the way roots develop and the critical role they have in developing healthy crops.
• documenting the biodiversity of classic crops such as barley and potatoes using molecular markers.
• developing diagnostics and markers to help combat pests and diseases by understanding how they work and how they spread.
• using plants to help lock carbon in the soil rather than releasing it in to the atmosphere.

SCRI is planning to undertake even more research on climate change in the months and years to come backed by support from the Scottish Executive.

To undertake this research, SCRI will continue to invest in high quality research facilities including state-of-the-art analytical and profiling equipment, controlled environment chambers (including variable CO2 atmospheres), field rain shelters, field trialing including irrigation, commercial-style polytunnels, disease nurseries, positive pressure, spore-proof, air conditioned glasshouses, statistical and modelling expertise, and humidity and chill controlled cabinets.

In continuing to develop its research relevant to climate change, SCRI will develop partnerships with universities and other institutions to enhance knowledge that can counter global warming.

SCRI is also working with commercial firms to ensure that knowledge and innovation reaches the market place as quickly as possible.